Ghost Alpha

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MVRV

MVRV compares BTC's market cap to its realized cap (the value of every coin priced at when it last moved on-chain). It approximates the average cost basis of all holders - a rough read on how much unrealized profit or loss the market as a whole is sitting on.

MVRV

What it measures

Market Value to Realized Value - BTC's current market cap divided by its realized cap (every coin valued at the price it last moved on-chain, a rough aggregate cost basis).

Formula

MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap

Normal range

Roughly 1.0-2.0 in typical mid-cycle conditions. Below 1.0 means the average holder is underwater; above 3.5 has historically marked the late, euphoric stage of a cycle.

How it fails

MVRV says nothing about WHEN a threshold gets crossed or resolved - a reading above 3.5 can persist or even climb further before any reversal. It's also insensitive to short holding periods (a coin that moved yesterday counts the same as one dormant since 2013), so it reflects longer-term positioning more than immediate flow.

Related metrics

Puell Multiple, Net Exchange Flow, Active Addresses, Realized Cap

Bull read

A low or falling MVRV means most holders are near or below cost basis - historically a higher-conviction, lower-supply-overhang environment.

Bear read

A high MVRV alone doesn't cap upside - cycles have pushed well past 3.5 before topping, and calling a top on this metric alone has been wrong before.

Worked example

On this project's own ingested data, the highest reading on record is 146.0383 on 2010-07-18T00:00:00, and the lowest is 0.3868 on 2011-10-19T00:00:00 - computed from ingested history, not asserted from memory.

Full metric page →