Ghost Alpha

← Learn

Puell Multiple

Compares the USD value of newly issued BTC to its own 365-day trailing average - a read on whether miner revenue (and therefore potential miner sell pressure) is unusually high or low relative to its own recent history.

Puell Multiple

What it measures

Today's USD value of newly issued BTC (miner revenue from block rewards) divided by its own trailing 365-day average.

Formula

Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance (USD) / 365-day Trailing Mean Daily Issuance

Normal range

Centers near 1.0 by construction. Above 4 has historically coincided with miner-capitulation-driven cycle tops (miner revenue unusually elevated); below 0.5 with capitulation-driven bottoms.

How it fails

It reacts to price (issuance value is priced in USD) and to the halving schedule (issuance itself steps down every 4 years) at the same time - a reading right after a halving reflects the schedule change more than a price signal, and needs a full trailing year to normalize.

Related metrics

MVRV, Realized Volatility, Realized Cap

Bull read

A low Puell Multiple has historically meant miner revenue is depressed relative to its own recent history - a condition that has preceded bottoms.

Bear read

Elevated miner revenue doesn't force a top on any particular timeline, and a halving mechanically resets the baseline every 4 years regardless of price.

Worked example

On this project's own ingested data, the highest reading on record is 10.4902 on 2013-04-09T00:00:00, and the lowest is 0.2935 on 2011-11-21T00:00:00 - computed from ingested history, not asserted from memory.

Full metric page →